Abstract: The reasonable planning of energy storage capacity is carried out from the point of view of stabilizing the random fluctuation of new energy output, and the joint probability model of new energy storage system is used to describe the output of micro power supply. A method of probabilistic power flow calculation based on improved sample ranking method is proposed to simplify the correlation control method of multi input random variables of traditional stochastic power flow. In order to reduce the system active power loss, reduce the probability of node voltage exceeding the limit, and consider the operation cost of energy storage device, a multi-objective optimization model is constructed, and the particle swarm optimization algorithm combined with chaotic optimization and linear decreasing inertia weight is used to solve the problem. Finally, an example analysis is carried out in Matlab, and the results show that the stochastic power flow method combined with the joint probabilistic model can effectively solve the multi-objective optimization model, and the system uncertainty is restrained under the constraint condition.

Key words: Island micro grid, energy storage battery, stochastic power flow, joint probability model

摘要： 从平抑新能源出力随机波动的角度出发对储能装置的容量进行合理规划，采用新能源-储能系统的联合概率模型描述微电源出力。简化传统随机潮流多输入随机变量的相关性控制方法，提出一种基于改进样本排序方法的概率潮流计算。针对减小系统有功损耗、降低节点电压越限概率并考虑储能装置运行成本构建多目标优化模型，并采用结合混沌优化和线性递减惯性权重的粒子群算法进行求解。最后Matlab中进行了算例分析，结果表明结合联合概率模型的随机潮流方法能够有效求解多目标优化模型，在满足约束条件的前提下，抑制了系统的不确定性。

关键词: 孤岛微电网, 储能电池, 随机潮流, 联合概率模型